September 24th Market Overview

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Happy Tuesday, everyone.

We are in a healthy looking consolidation since last Thursday, this is ideal price action going into the last slice of September. Especially after the big basis cut announcement last week.

Historically, September has usually been a rough month for bulls but looks like this September will beat those odds.

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Lets dig in…

Executive Summary

• S&P 500 ▲0.1% to fresh record high, shaking off weak consumer confidence data

• $NVDA surges ▲4%+, leading chip stocks and broader tech sector rally

• Consumer confidence suffers largest one-month decline since August 2021

• China unveils new stimulus measures, boosting related stocks

Market Overview

We’re seeing mixed performance in major indices today. The S&P 500 is up 0.1%, reaching a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, after touching an all-time high earlier, is now up just 0.06%. The Nasdaq Composite is leading with a 0.4% gain, driven by strong tech sector performance.

Key Market Drivers

1. Consumer Confidence Plummets: The index dropped sharply to 98.7 in September, well below the expected 104, marking the largest decline since August 2021.

2. China’s Economic Stimulus: The People’s Bank of China announced a 50 basis point cut to banks’ reserve requirements, along with other support measures.

3. Geopolitical Concerns: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned about worsening geopolitical instability affecting the economy.

4. Tech Sector Strength: $NVDA’s surge is powering gains in semiconductor stocks and the broader technology sector.

Stock Spotlight

1. $NVDA (Nvidia): ▲4%+, leading the chip stock rally and broader market gains

2. $LBRDA (Liberty Broadband): ▲28%+, best day ever after submitting a business combination counterproposal to $CHTR (Charter)

3. $FLS (Flowserve): ▲6%+, following Bank of America’s note on “underappreciated nuclear exposure”

4. $CAT (Caterpillar): ▲3%+, benefiting from China’s economic measures

5. $JD (JD.com): ▲8%, responding positively to China’s stimulus announcement

Other Magnificent 7 Updates

• $NFLX (Netflix): Hit a new 52-week high, joining 21 other S&P 500 stocks reaching all-time highs

• The group continues to show solid momentum, influencing broader market trends

Other Notable Company News

• $V (Visa): ▼4% on reports of a potential DOJ antitrust lawsuit

• $SMAR (Smartsheet): ▲6%+ after agreeing to be acquired by Blackstone and Vista Equity Partners for $8.4 billion

• $T (AT&T): Named Goldman Sachs’ top telecom services pick, citing potential positive wireless results and capital allocation announcements

• Casino Stocks: $LVS (Las Vegas Sands) ▲6% and $WYNN (Wynn Resorts) ▲4% following China’s economic support measures

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Nothing today of note.

Policy Watch

• Federal Reserve’s potential easing stance is being closely watched, with investors hoping for lower rates to drive economic growth and boost profits

• Upcoming November elections are expected to increase market volatility, particularly regarding fiscal policies that impact corporate taxation

What to Watch

1. Consumer confidence: Further declines could signal weaker spending, impacting retail and discretionary sectors.

2. China’s stimulus: Additional measures may boost global markets, especially companies with Chinese exposure.

3. Geopolitical tensions: Escalations could increase market volatility, affecting defense and energy sectors.

4. Tech sector momentum: $NVDA-led semiconductor performance may help drive overall market direction.

5. Antitrust developments: Potential DOJ actions against $V and others could reshape tech sector valuations.

6. Fed policy signals: Any hints about rate changes will likely impact equity valuations and market sentiment.

P.S. 
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- JB

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Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.