March 6th Market Overview

Happy Thursday.

The tariffs are kicking the markets butt- the bleeding in the markets have been unbearable the past 2 weeks.

If $NVDA goes under $100, I might sell everything I own to throw into that puppy (just kidding...kinda).

Some good news today with partial exemption on Canadian and Mexican goods tariffs until April 2nd. Bullish sentiment IMO, but wasn't enough for a midday bounce. So much volume poured out of the Nasdaq today.

BTW, the live tickers format won yesterday's vote by a 67% majority. They're here to stay for now.

Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• Markets tumble with the S&P 500 hitting its lowest level since early November amid growing tariff uncertainty
  

• Treasury Secretary Bessent’s hawkish trade stance and controversial comments about Canadian PM Trudeau intensify investor anxiety
  

• Semiconductor stocks lead the tech decline after $MRVL ( ▲ 2.03% ) issues mixed guidance despite strong Amazon-related business
  

• The VIX fear gauge jumps 13.73% as markets record a sixth consecutive session with 1%+ moves
  

Market Overview

Key Market Drivers

1. Tariff policy uncertainty persists despite partial exemptions for Canadian and Mexican goods under USMCA until April 2, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggesting more industries could see delays
   

2. Tech sell-off accelerates as the AI trade that powered markets for over a year shows signs of unwinding, particularly hitting semiconductor and infrastructure companies
   

3. Employment concerns mount after Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported layoff announcements soaring to 2020 highs, driven largely by Trump and Musk’s efforts to shrink federal workforce
   

Stock Spotlight

• $TSLA ( ▲ 0.7% ) : Baird cuts PT to $370 from $440, adds as bearish fresh pick. Cites Model Y downtime and demand concerns. Trading at lowest level since Nov 5, heading for seventh straight weekly decline. Plans 1M+ sq. ft. Megapack facility in Texas.

• $MRVL ( ▲ 2.03% ) : Beat earnings but mixed guidance triggered semiconductor sell-off. Jefferies lowers PT to $100 from $120, notes Amazon ASIC revenue remains strong despite modest overall upside.

• $ZS ( ▲ 2.61% ) : Strong quarterly results prompt multiple upgrades. Rosenblatt upgrades to Buy from Neutral with $235 PT on accelerating growth trajectory.

• $MDB ( ▲ 0.34% ) : Weak fiscal 2026 guidance despite history of conservative forecasts. BofA cuts PT to $286 from $420 but maintains Buy, expects reacceleration.

• $HOOD ( ▼ 0.14% ) : Cantor Fitzgerald initiates with Overweight rating, $69 PT.

Big Name Updates

• $AMZN ( ▼ 1.39% ) : AWS launches agentic AI unit for complex workflows. Shares erase yesterday’s 2.2% gain in broader tech sell-off.

• $WMT ( ▼ 0.8% ) : Demanding 10% price cuts from Chinese suppliers to offset tariffs. Suppliers resisting due to thin margins.

• $TSM ( ▲ 0.96% ) : CEO confirms U.S. production lines “fully booked for 2025 and the next two years.”

Other Notable Company News

• $CORZ ( ▼ 2.98% ) : Down on reports Microsoft canceled contract obligations. Company denies claims. Affects other AI infrastructure stocks like $NBIS.

• $HIMS ( ▲ 4.06% ) : BofA reiterates Underperform, $21 PT. Cites Semaglutide off shortage list and Novo Nordisk’s NovoCare increasing competition. Citi views NovoCare as “direct challenge to HIMS.”

• $JD ( ▼ 1.94% ) : Quarterly earnings exceed expectations. China’s new AI agent “Manus” announcement boosts Chinese tech stocks.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.284% (▲ 0.017 percentage points). This upward pressure reflects:

• Ongoing inflation concerns tied to new tariff policies

• Limited safe-haven buying despite steep equity market declines

• Traders balancing growth concerns against potential inflation impacts

Policy Watch

US Tariff Developments

• White House extends USMCA goods tariff exemptions until April 2

• Limited market impact as exemptions cover only 50% of Mexican and 38% of Canadian imports

• Treasury Secretary Bessent escalated tensions by calling Canadian PM Trudeau a "numbskull"

• Bessent reinforced the administration's stance: "The American dream is not about access to cheap goods"

International Policy Moves

• China's central bank signals upcoming interest rate and reserve requirement cuts

• ECB expected to cut rates while maintaining hawkish tone following German stimulus announcement

• French President Macron emphasized European defense investment, noting Europe must prepare if "the United States is no longer by our side"

What to Watch: Friday's Jobs Report

• Anticipated Impact of Federal Cuts: Data will likely reflect the "big federal job cuts by DOGE" mentioned in initial sources, with Challenger, Gray & Christmas already reporting U.S. employers announced 172,017 layoffs in February (up 245% from January and highest since July 2020)
  

• Potential Contradiction to Weekly Claims: Thursday's jobless claims came in at 221,000 (lower than the 235,000 expected), creating conflicting signals ahead of Friday's comprehensive report
  

• Market Sensitivity Heightened: The report takes on added significance as investors seek clarity on how Trump's policies might affect broader employment trends beyond the federal workforce reductions
  

• Key Economic Barometer: The Fed's Beige Book and ISM manufacturing readings have already "indicated fear of rising input costs because of the tariffs" - Friday's report will add crucial context to this economic picture

P.S. 
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Thanks for reading 🙂

- John