March 26th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday.

Hump day put a hump in the markets thats for sure. White house said their will be new auto tariffs announced around 4 p.m. market time so I think market money is getting a bit shaky until that policy is clear.

On the brighter side of things their is a new investor network for everyone to talk shop

It’s called “Blossom”… hopefully a much more positive place then Stocktwits!


Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• President Trump set to announce new auto tariffs after bell today with broader measures expected next week
  

• Tech stocks lead market declines as China introduces energy regulations threatening companies like Nvidia’s business
  

• GameStop board approves Bitcoin investments with corporate cash, sending shares higher, further legitimizing crypto as a reserve currency
  

• Barclays cuts S&P 500 target to 5,900 – now Wall Street’s lowest forecast – citing mounting tariff risks
  

• New Investor and trader social media announced “Blossom Social”
  

Market Overview

Key Market Drivers

1. China Regulations Threaten Tech: Beijing’s top economic planner introduced energy efficiency rules for data centers that could disqualify Nvidia’s H20 chip, putting the company’s $17.1 billion China business at risk.
   

2. Encouraging Economic Data: February durable goods orders increased unexpectedly by 0.9%, significantly outpacing expectations for a 1% decline and demonstrating underlying economic strength.
   

3. Barclays Projects Higher Tariffs: Analysts estimate average U.S. tariff rates could climb to 15% – levels not seen since before World War II – up from 2.5% at the end of 2024.
   

4. Tariff Talk: White House confirmed President Trump will unveil new auto import tariffs during a press conference today. This precedes broader tariff measures expected next week, despite recent comments suggesting a “more lenient than reciprocal” approach.
   

Stock Spotlight

GameStop ($GME ( ▲ 2.2% ) ) shares up after board approved using corporate cash to invest in Bitcoin. Q4 net income: $131.3 million, double year-ago figure.

Dollar Tree ($DLTR ( ▲ 2.22% ) ) rose after selling Family Dollar to Brigade Capital and Macellum Capital for $1 billion. Q4 adjusted EPS: $2.29, revenue: $5.0 billion, same-store sales: +2%.

Vertiv Holdings ($VRT ( ▲ 2.82% ) ) declined after TD Cowen warned of slower data center equipment purchasing due to hyperscale redesigns, impacting H1 2025 orders.

Playtika ($PLTK ( ▲ 1.41% ) ) gained on Bank of America's double upgrade to "buy" from "underperform," citing high profitability in a mature but growing industry.

Big Name Updates

Nvidia ($NVDA ( ▼ 0.2% ) ) threatened by China's new energy efficiency rules affecting 13% of total revenue. Regulations may disqualify H20 chip from Chinese market.

Tesla ($TSLA ( ▲ 0.02% ) ) entering Saudi Arabia in April with Riyadh launch event featuring EVs, solar tech, Cybercab, and Optimus robot.

Amazon ($AMZN ( ▼ 1.49% ) ) testing "Interests AI" for shopping and "Health AI" for wellness tips with One Medical and pharmacy connections.

Google ($GOOGL ( ▲ 1.23% )) partnered with Foxconn ($100M) for Android Auto, in-car AI agents, and cloud services, targeting OEM rollouts in H2 2025.

Other Notable Company News

Scotts Miracle-Gro ($SMG ( ▲ 0.7% )): Jefferies maintained hold rating citing competition from eco-friendly brands like Sunday despite 50% market share.

Coinbase ($COIN ( ▲ 0.62% )): Rosenblatt recommends buying the dip, highlighting USDC stablecoin growth (36% this year vs Tether's 5%) with 50% revenue sharing.

Chewy ($CHWY ( ▼ 1.18% )) Q1 guidance: $3.06-3.09B revenue (above $3.04B consensus), EPS $0.30-$0.35 (consensus: $0.33).

Alibaba ($BABA ( ▲ 5.79% )) partnering with BMW for AI cockpits in China-made vehicles next year using Qwen model and Banma technology.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Safe-haven demand increased on tariff concerns. Treasury yields showed modest movement with traders positioning for Friday's PCE inflation report.

Policy Watch

President Trump announces auto tariffs at 4 PM ET. General Motors ($GM ( ▲ 3.46% ) ), Ford ($F ( ▲ 4.07% ) ), and Stellantis ($STLA ( ▲ 5.64% ) ) traded lower ahead of the news. Reports indicate 25% copper tariffs may follow within weeks.

Deutsche Bank's strategist predicts a market bottom near June 1 before recovering to new highs by year-end. The firm maintains its 7,000 S&P 500 target despite current tariff headwinds.

What to Watch

1. Auto Tariff Details: Watch for specific percentages and country exemptions in Trump’s announcement. Implementation timelines and scope will significantly impact both domestic and foreign automakers.

   • Potential ripple effects through supply chains

   • Market reaction to actual versus expected tariff levels
     

2. Durable Goods Follow-Through: Tomorrow’s final Q4 GDP reading and Friday’s PCE inflation data will provide context for February’s surprisingly strong durable goods numbers.

   • Impact on Federal Reserve policy outlook

   • Signs of resilience despite tariff concerns
     

3. Copper Tariff Development: Reports suggest copper tariffs could be announced within weeks, potentially at 25%.

   • Effects on industrial metals prices

   • Implications for construction and manufacturing sectors
     

4. Bitcoin’s Corporate Appeal: Following $GME’s announcement, watch for other companies considering Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

   • Potential copycat announcements

   • Regulatory response to growing corporate crypto adoption

P.S. 

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Thanks for reading 🙂

- John