March 17th Market Overview

Happy Monday.

Green to start the week?

I love to see it, there is a fun book written by Yale Hirsch in the 80's called "don't sell your stocks on a Monday". It presents research showing that Monday historically tends to be the worst day of the week. it was ahead of it's time as quantitative analysis wasn't much of a thing then. Anyways every time I see green across all indices on Monday now I think of his book and how "oh, if Monday is good this might be a good week"

Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• Markets rebounding today with broad participation as over 90% of S&P 500 members track for gains
  

• Trump confirms no exemptions on steel and aluminum tariffs, with reciprocal measures set for April 2
  

• Treasury Secretary Bessent called recent corrections “healthy,” warning that avoiding economic pain could lead to another financial crisis
  

• February retail sales increased modestly, providing some relief to concerned investors
  

Market Overview

Key Market Drivers

1. Tariff Talk: President Trump re-confirmed no exemptions on steel and aluminum tariffs, with reciprocal and sectoral tariffs to be imposed on April 2 alongside automotive duties.
   

2. Economic Outlook Revisions: The OECD lowered its 2025 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.2% from 2.4%, while JPMorgan cut its outlook to 1.6% from 1.9%, both citing trade barriers and policy uncertainty.
   

3. Retail Sales Data: February retail sales increased 0.2% month-over-month (below the 0.6% expectation), but excluding autos, sales rose 0.3%, matching economist projections.
   

4. Middle East Tensions: Oil prices moved higher after Trump warned Iran would be held responsible for any future Houthi attacks, adding geopolitical risk to markets.

Stock Spotlight

$INTC ( ▼ 2.27% ) : ripped after regulatory filing revealed incoming CEO Lip-Bu Tan will purchase $25 million worth of company shares within 30 days of appointment, signaling confidence in turnaround plans.

$TSLA ( ▲ 0.7% ) : Slid following a price target cut from Mizuho, despite launching a limited-time trial of Full Self-Driving function from March 17 to April 16.

$AFRM ( ▲ 1.99% ) : Tumbled after Klarna will replace it as $WMT's exclusive provider for buy-now-pay-later loans, ending a key partnership.

$INCY ( ▼ 1.28% ) : Plunged after releasing phase three trial data for a skin condition treatment showing efficacy in less than half of trial participants.

Big Name Updates

$NVDA ( ▲ 1.35% ) : KeyBanc expects Blackwell Ultra announcement at this week’s GTC conference, along with preview of next-gen Rubin architecture and extensive robotics discussions.

$AAPL ( ▼ 0.19% ) : iPhone shipments in China dropped 20.6% in January, signaling potential headwinds in a key market.

$SNAP ( ▼ 0.51% ) : CEO believes Meta cannot replicate Spectacles’ technology, highlighting the company’s augmented reality advantage with new AR lenses.

$MSTR ( ▼ 0.23% ) : Acquired an additional 130 bitcoins at an average price of $82,981, worth approximately $10.8 million.

Other Notable Company News

$NFLX ( ▲ 4.83% ) : Advanced after MoffettNathanson upgraded to buy from neutral, citing stronger monetization potential than previously expected.

$RDDT ( ▼ 1.83% ) : Redburn Atlantic initiated coverage with a sell rating and $75 price target, arguing the stock’s premium valuation compared to peers like Pinterest is unsustainable.

$NCLH ( ▲ 0.06% ) : JPMorgan upgraded to overweight from neutral with a $30 price target, noting “zero detectable change in demand” despite macroeconomic concerns.

$PLTR ( ▲ 6.24% ) : William Blair reiterated market perform rating, highlighting partnership with Databricks as signal of expanding AI ecosystem.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Japanese Government Bond yields reached new milestones today:

• 40-year JGB: Rose 7 basis points to record high of 3.007%

• 30-year JGB: Climbed to 19-year high of 2.635%

• These global bond market shifts could influence U.S. Treasury yields as risk sentiment changes

Policy Watch

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett acknowledged “absolute uncertainty” around tariffs will persist until April 2, when the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff plans will be revealed. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended recent market volatility, stating: “Corrections are healthy. They’re normal. What’s not healthy is straight up, that you get these euphoric markets. That’s how you get a financial crisis.” Bessent added there are “no guarantees” a recession would be avoided during the economic “detox” period.

What to Watch Out For

1. Trump-Putin Call Tuesday:

   • Trump announced he will speak with Russia's Putin on Tuesday

   • May have something to announce on Ukraine-Russia talks afterward

   • Could impact defense sector stocks and global risk sentiment
     

2. Egg Price Dynamics (big egg doesn’t want you to win):

   • Wholesale egg prices have dropped significantly as supplies rebound

   • National wholesale prices for large white shell eggs fell $2.70 to $4.15 per dozen

   • Seasonal Easter demand could disrupt the downward price trend
     

3. Crypto Fund Outflows:

   • Digital asset investment funds logged a fifth consecutive week of outflows

   • Total outflows of $1.7 billion for the week ending March 14

   • Marks the 17th day in a row of outflows, the longest negative streak on record

P.S. 

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Thanks for reading 🙂

- John