March 14th Market Overview

Happy Friday.

We are seeing big green on the board today! Maybe I’ll sleep better this weekend.

Schumer backing the GOP funding bill eased shutdown worries, and tech stocks showed signs of life again. Gold hit $3,000 for the first time, which was pretty cool to watch live.

A concerning flag: consumer sentiment dropped to 57.9 in March, way below the 63.2 economists expected. People are still worried about tariff talk and trade policy uncertainty.

Tariff write up pt. 2 will come out Sunday from yours truly.

Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• Markets bounce back: The Dow jumped 651 points, S&P 500 up 2%, and Nasdaq climbed 2.5% as buyers finally returned after the correction.
  

• Shutdown fears fade: Schumer told fellow Democrats he'd help advance the House GOP funding bill, which was a relief for markets worried about more chaos.
  

• Tech sees relief: $NVDA popped 4%+ after news about big Chinese orders for their H20 chips, helping lead the tech recovery.
  

• Gold hits milestone: Gold broke $3,000/oz for the first time ever as investors keep looking for safety amid all the uncertainty.
  

Market Overview

Key Market Drivers

1. No new tariff threats: We got through a day without new trade escalation, giving markets room to breathe.
   

2. Shutdown likely avoided: Schumer saying he'll help with the GOP funding bill took one big worry off the table.
   

3. German debt deal: German parties reached an agreement with Greens on their debt package, giving European markets a boost.
   

4. Tech bouncing back: The hardest-hit sector during the selloff led today's gains.
   

5. Flight to safety continues: Gold hitting $3,000 shows investors are still nervous about the bigger picture.

Stock Spotlight

$NVDA ( ▲ 1.35% ) – Tencent placed a massive order for NVDA's H20 AI chips worth billions of RMB for DeepSeek AI in WeChat. Alibaba and ByteDance orders are creating supply shortages. UAE officials pushing US for more chip access. Mizuho sees "major catalyst" with March 18 developer conference despite target cut from $175 to $168.

$DOCU ( ▲ 2.96% ) – Q4 results beat estimates with EPS of $0.86 (vs $0.84) and revenue of $776.3M (vs $760.99M), up 9% YoY. Billings grew 11% to $923.2M, and free cash flow hit $279.6M (vs $235.6M est). FY26 billings guidance of $3.30B-$3.35B topped the $3.22B estimate.

$RBRK ( ▲ 5.43% ) – Reports show best day on record after Q4 results beat expectations. Posted a narrower loss of $0.18 per share (vs $0.39 est loss) and $258M revenue (vs $233M est). Stock has gained 131% over the past six months.

$CCI ( ▲ 0.67% ) – Announced sale of fiber assets for $8.5 billion to EQT and Zayo. Investors have been pushing for focus on core business, and this deal delivers on that strategy.

$ULTA ( ▼ 2.23% ) – Strong Q4 performance with EPS of $8.46 (crushing $7.12 est), comparable sales growth of 1.5% (vs 0.8% est), and gross margin of 38.2% (vs 37.2% est) despite challenging retail environment.

Big Name Updates

$AAPL ( ▼ 0.19% ) – Bringing real-time language translation to AirPods later this year with iOS 19, enabling on-the-fly conversation translation between languages.

$TSLA ( ▲ 0.7% ) – Planning cheaper Model Y for 2026 with production costs cut by at least 20%. Wells Fargo cut target from $135 to $130 after "shocking" European sales drops. Tesla warned the Trump administration they're vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.

$META ( ▼ 1.87% ) – Facebook now allowing creators to monetize Stories with no minimum view requirement. Trump stated Facebook plans to "invest $60 billion by end of year," though specific details weren't provided.

$GOOGL ( ▼ 1.74% ) – Rolled out Gemini Personalization, a new AI feature that tailors responses based on users' search history, advancing their AI integration strategy.

Other Notable Company News

$BMWYY ( 0.0% ) – Expecting a $1.1 billion hit this year from escalating trade conflicts between US, Europe, and China. Currently fighting EU levies on China-made cars in court while bracing for Trump's auto tariffs.

$CMCSA ( ▲ 0.73% ) – Secured Olympics broadcast rights through 2036 in a $3 billion deal, demonstrating long-term commitment to premium sports content.

$AMD ( ▲ 0.84% ) – Mizuho lowered price target from $140 to $120 while maintaining an Outperform rating on the shares.

$PTON ( ▲ 0.53% ) – Received upgrade to Buy from Canaccord with a $10 target price. Analysts see a potential "turning point" after prolonged struggles.

$DJT ( ▲ 5.44% ) – Reports show best performance in over a month today, but still tracking for eighth consecutive negative week. Shares have lost half their value since Trump took office.

$CHI ( ▲ 2.78% ) – Upgraded to Buy by Loop Capital, which views the recent pullback as a buying opportunity and highlights the company's ability to manage tariff-related risks.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

• Treasury yields moved higher despite the stock market rally

• Fed meeting next week: futures pricing 97% chance of unchanged rates

• Key focus will be on signals about future rate cut timing

• Tariffs could push inflation higher, potentially delaying rate cuts

• Rate cut delays would create headwinds for both stocks and bonds

Policy Watch

Commerce Secretary Lutnick came out swinging today, calling the Atlanta Fed's 2.4% contraction forecast "ridiculous" and declaring that "Trump owns the growth of GDP." He thinks we'll start seeing the impact of Trump's policies by Q3 or Q4 this year.

Over in Europe, ECB's Holzmann is sounding pretty hawkish, warning that higher European spending could force them to hike rates and that inflation remains the bigger risk. He's backing a pause at their next meeting though.

What to Watch

1. NVDA Developer Conference (March 18): This could be huge for AI stocks next week.

   • Watch for new chip announcements and partnerships

   • Any updates on H20 production could move the stock given the supply shortages

2. Fed Meeting (Next Week): Rates will likely stay put, but Powell's comments are what matter.

   • Listen for any hints about when cuts might happen

   • His take on inflation and tariffs could move markets big time

3. Government Funding Resolution: We're not out of the woods yet.

   • Final passage still needs to happen

   • Any last-minute drama could spook markets again

4. Tariff Developments: Trump's standing firm on his April 2 tariffs.

   • Watch for corporate responses and workarounds

   • Any retaliation from trading partners could hit specific sectors hard

P.S. 

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Thanks for reading 🙂

- John