March 13th Market Overview

Happy Thursday.

Markets taking a beating today with the S&P 500 officially in correction territory. The market just isn't shaking these Tariff concerns, they affect too many supply chains w/ future revenue impact. Bright side Intel bucked the trend with a 14% jump on news of their new CEO, $NVDA kept almost flat here. There are glimmers of hope out there. I'm paying close attention to how indices react around their 200 day moving averages.

Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

• S&P 500 entered correction territory today, dropping 10% from recent highs as Trump doubles down on tariff plans
  

• Feb’s PPI came in flat versus expected 0.3% increase, showing more potential inflation relief
  

• Nearly 60% of retail investors remain bearish for a record third consecutive week (latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors).
  

• Small caps approaching bear market territory with Russell 2000 nearly 19% below recent high
  

Market Overview

Key Market Drivers

1. European Trade Tensions Escalate: Trump threatened 200% tariffs specifically on EU alcoholic products, stating the move "will be great for Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S."
   

2. Treasury Secretary Downplays Volatility: Scott Bessent said administration focuses on long-term economic health, noting "I'm not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks"
   

3. Technical Damage Accumulating: Week-to-date losses reach 4.2% for S&P 500, 4.8% for Nasdaq, and 4.6% for Dow - its biggest weekly decline since March 2023
   

4. Alpine Macro Warning: Firm predicts "moment of maximum tariff-related pain" between April-July with more 25% sectoral tariffs likely targeting autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors

Stock Spotlight

$INTC ( ▼ 2.27% ) jumped after naming Lip-Bu Tan as CEO effective March 18th. Tan previously led Cadence Design Systems to a 3200% stock rise. Bank of America upgraded Intel to neutral, raising price target to $25.

$ADBE ( ▼ 0.15% ) dropped after issuing lackluster guidance. Bank of America lowered price target to $528 from $605, citing “little change in trajectory for creative and digital experience businesses.”

$PATH ( ▼ 1.21% ) plummeted after missing revenue estimates and issuing disappointing Q1 guidance, projecting $330-$335 million versus $368 million analyst expectations.

$S ( ▲ 0.52% ) posted its first positive non-GAAP operating margin in Q4, but guidance fell short with the company noting up to $10 million expected churn from product retirements.

$LVMH ( 0.0% ) fell for the ninth consecutive session following Trump’s threats against European alcohol producers, marking its longest losing streak since August 2021.

Big Name Updates

$NVDA ( ▲ 1.35% ) representatives visited Samsung’s Cheonan plant for an HBM3E packaging audit, highlighting critical memory component supply chain focus.

$MSFT ( ▼ 0.54% ) upgraded by Da Davidson to buy with price target increase to $450, citing “more rational capex strategy.”

$TSLA ( ▲ 0.7% ) partnered with Baidu for self-driving capabilities in China, addressing regulatory hurdles preventing local data use for AI training.

$GOOGL ( ▼ 1.74% ) unveiled Gemma 3, an AI model running on just one H100 GPU, potentially making advanced AI more accessible.

$META ( ▼ 1.87% ) CEO Mark Zuckerberg visited the White House for meetings with Trump administration officials.

Other Notable Company News

$WMT ( ▼ 0.8% ) executives summoned by Beijing after reports of pressuring Chinese suppliers to cut prices to offset tariffs.

U.S. food companies, including $PEP ( ▼ 2.66% ) , $CAG ( ▼ 2.44% ) , seeking tariff exemptions for essential ingredients unavailable domestically.

$SBUX ( ▼ 2.08% ) adding more seating and power outlets to boost sales by encouraging longer customer stays.

$CL ( ▼ 0.76% ) executives noted “hesitancy in the consumer given all the news flow” at UBS conference.

$UBER ( ▲ 1.26% ) former CEO called abandoning autonomous driving project a major “MISSTEP,” noting Uber was trailing only Waymo at the time.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.276% as investors sought safety. Gold futures surged 1.7% to $2,997, approaching February's record. Macquarie projects gold reaching $3,500/oz by Q3, citing institutional preference for assets without "credit or counterparty risk." $GDX ( ▲ 1.02% ) rose, marking its third straight day of gains.

Policy Watch

• Fed Rate Path Shifts: Barclays revised its 2025 forecast to two rate cuts from one previously, though still below market pricing. February's flat PPI reading strengthens the case for easing, with Wolfe Research noting "oil prices will continue to play a key factor in inflation going forward."

• Russia-Ukraine Tensions: Kremlin rejected the proposed 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine had agreed to, with Putin aide Yuri Ushakov dismissing it as "nothing other than a temporary time-out for Ukrainian soldiers." The Russian position remains focused on "long-term peaceful resolution" rather than temporary measures.

• China Stimulus Signals: PBOC vowed to implement "moderately loose monetary policy" with rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions "when appropriate" to support growth, potentially offering global economic offset to trade concerns.

• Wall Street Forecasts Adjust: Goldman Sachs cut its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 6,200 from 6,500, the latest firm to downgrade projections amid deteriorating confidence in corporate earnings growth and escalating trade uncertainty.

What to Watch

1. April 2nd Tariff Implementation: Trump’s broader tariff package takes effect, with Alpine Macro analysts predicting peak uncertainty between April-July
   

2. Retail Sales Data (Tomorrow): Will show if consumer spending has maintained momentum despite market turbulence
   

3. PBOC Rate Decisions: China’s central bank pledged to cut rates, potentially offsetting some negative impact from trade tensions
   

4. Trump’s Next Trade Target: European Union now firmly in focus after alcohol tariff threats, with potential for auto, pharmaceutical, or semiconductor tariffs next

P.S. 

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Thanks for reading 🙂

- John