February 28th Market Overview

Happy Friday

Finally a little green on the board. A much needed green day to relief some anxiety into the weekend. Mid-session volatility triggered by Trump-Zelenskyy tensions. Tariff threats and the Atlanta Fed’s negative GDP forecast loom over investor sentiment, while inflation data met expectations.


Let's dig in...

Market Overview

Nasdaq heads for worst week since 2023 and worst month since September 2023, down ~5% in February. S&P 500 down 2.5% for the month, tracking worst performance since April 2024.

Key Market Drivers

1. Geopolitical Tensions: Trump told Zelenskyy “You’re gambling with World War III” during Oval Office confrontation. VIX spiked to 22.15, highest since January 27.

2. Tariff Escalation: China promised “all necessary countermeasures” against Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting Tuesday.

3. Economic Warning Signs: Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast slashed to -1.5% for Q1, down from 3.9% earlier this month. Consumer spending fell 0.2% in January.

4. Technical Weakness: Nasdaq-100 down 7.33% since February 19 peak, fastest 5% decline since September 2020.
   

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Stock Spotlight

• $NVDA ▲ 1.40%: Rebounded after 8.5% post-earnings plunge. Down 8% for week. Pushed back into $3 trillion market cap club. Fidelity manager advises patience ahead of March GTC conference.
  

• $PLTR ▼ 1.00%: Seventh negative session out of eight. Down 17.1% for week, worst since February 2021. Now 30% below 52-week high.
  

• $TSLA ▲ 2.68%: On track for worst week since December 2022 (down 16%). Down 30% in 2025, erasing most post-election gains.
  

• $BRK.A ▲ 0.60%: Hit record $767,000 per share. Up 11% YTD after reporting 71% surge in Q4 operating profit.

Big Name Updates

• $MSTR ▲ 6.37%: Rebounded as Bitcoin fell 14% this week, on pace for worst week since November 2022 FTX collapse.
  

• $DELL ▼ 7.00%: Q4 revenue missed ($23.93B vs $24.56B expected) while EPS beat ($2.68 vs $2.53).
  

• $HP ▼ 6.00%: Warned of tariff impact on 2025 profits. Announced 2,000 additional layoffs.
  

• $ADSK ▼ 4.41%: Beat earnings expectations but announced 1,300 job cuts (9% of workforce).

Other Notable Company News

• $ENPH ▼ 4.80%: Hit July 2020 lows. Down 35.2% since election as solar sector struggles.
  

• $FSLR ▼ 2.80%: At November 2023 lows. Down 36.4% since election.
  

• $LOGI ▼ 4.00%: Bank of America downgraded to underperform, citing tariff exposure and slowing growth.
  

• $RDFN ▼ 12.00%: Missed earnings expectations. Revenue guidance ($214-225M) below estimates ($244.4M). CEO stated "home sales unlikely to recover in 2025."
  

• $VITL ▲ 5.75%: Vital Farms reported 22.2% revenue growth despite bird flu impact. Forecasted "at least" $740M for 2025.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

10-year yield fell 1.21% to 4.235%, lowest of 2025. Declining rates signal recession concerns rather than boosting equities. Markets anticipate Fed rate cuts as tariffs threaten economic growth.

Policy Watch

China vowed "all necessary countermeasures" against March 4 tariffs. SEC ruled most meme coins not securities, calling them "more akin to collectibles." January core PCE rose 0.3% monthly, 2.6% annually, supporting Fed's current rate stance.

What to Watch

1. GDP Nowcast Revisions: Monitor updates to Atlanta Fed's -1.5% Q1 forecast for recession signals.
   

2. China Retaliation Specifics: Watch for Beijing's countermeasures affecting global supply chains and tech manufacturers.
   

3. Crypto Stabilization: Bitcoin experiencing worst week since FTX collapse. Watch for support levels affecting $MSTR, $COIN.
   

4. Nvidia GTC Conference: March event could reignite semiconductor momentum after $NVDA's disappointing earnings.
   

5. Consumer Spending Trends: January's 0.2% spending decline could accelerate if tariff concerns grow.